Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
